A Gas Infrastructure Pathways in East Java Using System Dynamic Approach

As a developing country, Indonesia has been consuming energy with 114 Million Ton Oil Equivalent (MTOE) and estimated that the demand for energy will increase up to 167,4 MTOE in 2050 by Indonesian Energy Ministry. It is also estimated that natural gas will play the role in fulfilling the energy demand in Indonesia. However, in utilizing the natural gas spread of the regions, Indonesia still lack of natural gas infrastructures. As natural gas infrastructures are playing a vital role on those problems, the condition of supply demand, capacity of infrastructure and the effectiveness of the route need to be adjusted and considered. In this study, system dynamic method is employed in order to forecast the supply and demand of natural gas in East Java Province. In addition, a simulation is carried out to optimize and simulate the scenario model of the natural gas infrastructure at certain time-year period. With the constraint and condition given to the system dynamics, a supply-demand condition in East Java area that mainly comes from electrical power generation, industry and household is assessed. Based on developed scenarios, the model is expected to fulfil the needs of natural gas in East Java. The possibility of establishing new LNG terminal in certain location or expanding the capacity of existing facilities are also considered in this study.