A personalized infectious disease risk prediction system

Retno A. Vinarti*, Lucy M. Hederman

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)


This article presents a system for predicting a human's risk of contracting infectious diseases based on their personal attributes and environments (region, specific location features and climate contexts). This system is also intended to help human experts in the domain (i.e. epidemiologists) to represent their knowledge and ease their jobs related to personalized infectious disease risk prediction. The system consists of a knowledge representation to encode epidemiological knowledge about infectious disease risk, and an algorithm that auto-converts the encoded knowledge into a model that predicts the risk as a probability. The knowledge representation, Infectious Disease Risk (IDR), consists of an ontology and rules to represent the knowledge structure and its quantification in a way that allows auto-generation to a prediction model, Bayesian Network (BN). The algorithm, BN-Builder, converts the IDR knowledge-base to an infectious disease risk BN, including populating the basis of predictive reasoning from the IDR rules. A user interface facilitates encoding of epidemiological knowledge into the IDR knowledge-base. The system's output, personalized infectious disease risk prediction, is validated for three disease-country contexts: Dengue Fever and Tuberculosis in Indonesia, and Cholera in India. The personalized infectious disease risks are reliable (p values > 0.05) for each population parameter. The personalized infectious disease risk probability can be reliably predicted using this system. Inclusion of more granularity on contexts in this domain will be considered in further development of this system.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)266-274
Number of pages9
JournalExpert Systems with Applications
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2019
Externally publishedYes


  • Bayesian network
  • Infectious disease
  • Ontology
  • Risk prediction
  • Rule


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