Agricultural strategic commodity price forecasting using artificial neural network

Wiwik Anggraeni, Faizal Mahananto, M. Aunu Rofiq, Kuntoro Boga Andri, Sumaryanto, Zulkifli Zaini, Apol Pribadi Subriadi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Agricultural commodities, especially perishable one such as chili and onion have sharp and irregular price fluctuation. Decreasing supply of the commodities to the marketplace produces its price soars. On the contrary, the price falls below the normal price when its supply increase abundantly. Where the price stability on the commodities is desired, government are trying to maintain its supply rigorously. This paper aims to forecast chili price as a perishable commodities to help the decision maker in maintaining its supply. The method used in this study was artificial neural network using the input variable i.e. consumer's price, chili production, and chili consumption. The artificial neural network model has been produced using the available data. It has MAPE value 16.19% and considered as sufficient accuracy.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2018 International Seminar on Research of Information Technology and Intelligent Systems, ISRITI 2018
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages347-352
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781538674222
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2018
Event2018 International Seminar on Research of Information Technology and Intelligent Systems, ISRITI 2018 - Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Duration: 21 Nov 201822 Nov 2018

Publication series

Name2018 International Seminar on Research of Information Technology and Intelligent Systems, ISRITI 2018

Conference

Conference2018 International Seminar on Research of Information Technology and Intelligent Systems, ISRITI 2018
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CityYogyakarta
Period21/11/1822/11/18

Keywords

  • Agriculture
  • Artificial neural network
  • Forecasting
  • Price
  • Strategic commodity

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