Analysis of Rice Productivity Estimation in East Java Province And Its Relationship to Poverty

Rice remains a significant agricultural commodity, retaining its status as a fundamental dietary staple. This underscores its pivotal role in ensuring both economic and political equilibrium within the Indonesian region. Amidst the spectrum of national economic challenges, poverty takes center stage as a prominent concern confronting the Indonesian populace. The province most acutely affected by this predicament is East J ava, boasting a noteworthy poverty rate. In the year 2022, the poverty headcount in East Java Province escalated to a staggering 4,472.74 million individuals. Intriguingly, East Java Province emerges as a leader in rice productivity for 2022, boasting an impressive 0.562 kg/m2. This insight was gleaned through the utilization of Landsat-8 Level 2 imagery, which facilitated the computation of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on paddy fields. The subsequent estimation of rice productivity, accomplished via a regression equation model, yielded an average of 0.567 kg/m2, An alternate methodology involved the employment of the ARIMA forecasting model, drawing upon statistical data spanning 2013 to 2021. This approach yielded an average estimated rice paddy productivity of 0.567 kg/m2, The variance of 4.78% between the two methodologies was determined via the Lost Capacity equation. Notably, the percentage of poverty exhibited a correlation with the estimated productivity value, substantiating a noteworthy assertion: heightened productivity corresponds with diminished poverty rates.