Analysis of Soybean Production and Demand to Develop Strategic Policy of Food Self Sufficiency: A System Dynamics Framework

Soybean production and demand gap in Indonesia for decades has triggered dependence on imported soy products. Demand consumption of soy protein-based foods higher with increasing population annually. Various efforts have been made by the government but is still not are able to show maximum results overall. The aim of this study is to find an alternative solution using system dynamics approach. Real conditions captured into a model and then performed a series of scenarios the decision to obtain best results using computer assistance. The results of scenarios showed that soybean production could be produced to meet the needs of soybean demand in Indonesia for 20 years by increasing expansion of land of at least 70% per year, the use of seeds with a minimum production level 2.4 tons / hectare or utilization of the short-lived seeds which able to increase the cropping index at least 2.0, use of biological fertilizers which can increase seed productivity at least 125%.