Bridge Deterioration Prediction Model Based on Hybrid Markov-System Dynamic

Jojok Widodo Soetjipto*, Tri Joko Wahyu Adi, Nadjadji Anwar

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)


Instantaneous bridge failure tends to increase in Indonesia. To mitigate this condition, Indonesia's Bridge Management System (I-BMS) has been applied to continuously monitor the condition of bridges. However, I-BMS only implements visual inspection for maintenance priority of the bridge structure component instead of bridge structure system. This paper proposes a new bridge failure prediction model based on hybrid Markov-System Dynamic (MSD). System dynamic is used to represent the correlation among bridge structure components while Markov chain is used to calculate temporal probability of the bridge failure. Around 235 data of bridges in Indonesia were collected from Directorate of Bridge the Ministry of Public Works and Housing for calculating transition probability of the model. To validate the model, a medium span concrete bridge was used as a case study. The result shows that the proposed model can accurately predict the bridge condition. Besides predicting the probability of the bridge failure, this model can also be used as an early warning system for bridge monitoring activity.

Original languageEnglish
Article number05001
JournalMATEC Web of Conferences
Publication statusPublished - 30 Dec 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event6th International Conference of Euro Asia Civil Engineering Forum, EACEF 2017 - Seoul, Korea, Republic of
Duration: 22 Aug 201725 Aug 2017


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