Comparison of tram and bus demand using multinomial logit model for West - Central route in Surabaya

Public transportation, which is important for urban communities, has been gradually decreasing in the city of Surabaya since the beginning of this millennium. The quality of service that is not standard in transit, no schedule, is one of the causes. The city government and the central government are planning to develop a transit network across citywide in order to comply sustainable cities, one of which is in the recently widened corridor from Benowo terminal to Tunjungan street in the city center. This study aims to analyze mixed traffic bus or dedicated lane tram passenger demand with different operating speed scenarios. In this study, O-D matrix data were obtained from the Transportation Office derived from OD survey 2011 is source for proportion variable. Distance and travel speed derived from google earth and google maps are used for spatial variables. Multinomial logit model (MNL) with parameter of power deterrence function calibrated utilyzing Generalized Reduced Gradient Nonlinear is used for analyzing modal split among car, motorcycle and tram for first scenario, and among car, motorcycle and tram for second scenario. Different travel time of tram and bus caused by different type of right of way resulting interesting difference of proportions. A 5-minute headway of bus service without busway resulting modal split 10.9% of total trips, while tram using the same headway with faster operating speed can attract 15.3% modal split. Meanwhile, using trip distribution model utilizes geographic and spatial weighting considering population, urban activity, and accessibility is used for forecasting OD matrix to 2021, and using modal split proportion of public transit bus or tram, demand of bus or tram are 3261 and 4568 passenger per hour respectively.