TY - GEN
T1 - Configuring calendar variation based on time series regression method for forecasting of monthly currency inflow and outflow in Central Java
AU - Setiawan,
AU - Suhartono,
AU - Ahmad, Imam Safawi
AU - Rahmawati, Noorgam Ika
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.
PY - 2015/12/11
Y1 - 2015/12/11
N2 - Bank Indonesia (BI) as the central bank of Republic Indonesiahas a single overarching objective to establish and maintain rupiah stability. This objective could be achieved by monitoring traffic of inflow and outflow money currency. Inflow and outflow are related to stock and distribution of money currency around Indonesia territory. It will effect of economic activities. Economic activities of Indonesia,as one of Moslem country, absolutely related to Islamic Calendar (lunar calendar), that different with Gregorian calendar. This research aims to forecast the inflow and outflow money currency of Representative Office (RO) of BI Semarang Central Java region. The results of the analysis shows that the characteristics of inflow and outflow money currency influenced by the effects of the calendar variations, that is the day of Eid al-Fitr (moslem holyday) as well as seasonal patterns. In addition, the period of a certain week during Eid al-Fitr also affect the increase of inflow and outflow money currency. The best model based on the value of the smallestRoot Mean Square Error (RMSE) for inflow data is ARIMA model. While the best model for predicting the outflow data in RO of BI Semarang is ARIMAX model or Time Series Regression, because both of them have the same model. The results forecast in a period of 2015 shows an increase of inflow money currency happened in August, while the increase in outflow money currency happened in July.
AB - Bank Indonesia (BI) as the central bank of Republic Indonesiahas a single overarching objective to establish and maintain rupiah stability. This objective could be achieved by monitoring traffic of inflow and outflow money currency. Inflow and outflow are related to stock and distribution of money currency around Indonesia territory. It will effect of economic activities. Economic activities of Indonesia,as one of Moslem country, absolutely related to Islamic Calendar (lunar calendar), that different with Gregorian calendar. This research aims to forecast the inflow and outflow money currency of Representative Office (RO) of BI Semarang Central Java region. The results of the analysis shows that the characteristics of inflow and outflow money currency influenced by the effects of the calendar variations, that is the day of Eid al-Fitr (moslem holyday) as well as seasonal patterns. In addition, the period of a certain week during Eid al-Fitr also affect the increase of inflow and outflow money currency. The best model based on the value of the smallestRoot Mean Square Error (RMSE) for inflow data is ARIMA model. While the best model for predicting the outflow data in RO of BI Semarang is ARIMAX model or Time Series Regression, because both of them have the same model. The results forecast in a period of 2015 shows an increase of inflow money currency happened in August, while the increase in outflow money currency happened in July.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84984585747&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1063/1.4937106
DO - 10.1063/1.4937106
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84984585747
T3 - AIP Conference Proceedings
BT - Innovation and Analytics Conference and Exhibition, IACE 2015
A2 - Ahmad, Nazihah
A2 - Zulkepli, Jafri
A2 - Ibrahim, Adyda
A2 - Aziz, Nazrina
A2 - Abdul-Rahman, Syariza
PB - American Institute of Physics Inc.
T2 - 2nd Innovation and Analytics Conference and Exhibition, IACE 2015
Y2 - 29 September 2015 through 1 October 2015
ER -