Abstract

Bank Indonesia (BI) as the central bank of Republic Indonesiahas a single overarching objective to establish and maintain rupiah stability. This objective could be achieved by monitoring traffic of inflow and outflow money currency. Inflow and outflow are related to stock and distribution of money currency around Indonesia territory. It will effect of economic activities. Economic activities of Indonesia,as one of Moslem country, absolutely related to Islamic Calendar (lunar calendar), that different with Gregorian calendar. This research aims to forecast the inflow and outflow money currency of Representative Office (RO) of BI Semarang Central Java region. The results of the analysis shows that the characteristics of inflow and outflow money currency influenced by the effects of the calendar variations, that is the day of Eid al-Fitr (moslem holyday) as well as seasonal patterns. In addition, the period of a certain week during Eid al-Fitr also affect the increase of inflow and outflow money currency. The best model based on the value of the smallestRoot Mean Square Error (RMSE) for inflow data is ARIMA model. While the best model for predicting the outflow data in RO of BI Semarang is ARIMAX model or Time Series Regression, because both of them have the same model. The results forecast in a period of 2015 shows an increase of inflow money currency happened in August, while the increase in outflow money currency happened in July.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInnovation and Analytics Conference and Exhibition, IACE 2015
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the 2nd Innovation and Analytics Conference and Exhibition
EditorsNazihah Ahmad, Jafri Zulkepli, Adyda Ibrahim, Nazrina Aziz, Syariza Abdul-Rahman
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735413382
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 Dec 2015
Event2nd Innovation and Analytics Conference and Exhibition, IACE 2015 - Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia
Duration: 29 Sept 20151 Oct 2015

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume1691
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference2nd Innovation and Analytics Conference and Exhibition, IACE 2015
Country/TerritoryMalaysia
CityAlor Setar, Kedah
Period29/09/151/10/15

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