Cost-performance prediction model of construction project using bayesian belief networks approach

Conditions of some construction projects are still experiencing cost overrun because of various uncertainty factors in the field. The uncertainty factors were interrelated. However, measurement method of cost performance such as Earned Value Analysis (EVA) didn’t consider the interrelated among uncertainty factors. This paper proposes prediction method of cost performance with it consider cause-effect relationships among a set factors using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) approach. To validate the model, two construction project of building were used as a case study. The results showed that prediction model can predict cost performance accurately. It provides high accuracy in cost performance prediction and the early warning for cost overruns of construction project.