TY - JOUR
T1 - COVID-19 transmission risk in Surabaya and Sidoarjo
T2 - an inhomogeneous marked Poisson point process approach
AU - Choiruddin, Achmad
AU - Hannanu, Firdaus Fabrice
AU - Mateu, Jorge
AU - Fitriyanah, Vanda
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
PY - 2023/6
Y1 - 2023/6
N2 - Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 transmission is necessary to plan better strategies for controlling the spread of the disease. However, only a few studies explore the COVID-19 transmission risk over a fine spatial resolution while considering relevant spatial and temporal factors. To this aim, we consider an inhomogeneous marked Poisson point process model to assess COVID-19 transmission risk using data of home addresses of confirmed cases, in relation to locations of sources of crowd (enterprise, market, and place of worship) and population density in Surabaya and Sidoarjo, Indonesia. Our marked model is able to analyze how the spatial covariates are varying with time, helping authorities to evaluate the information of covariates depending on the period in which restrictions are taking place. Our results show that enterprise, place of worship, and population densities have significant impact to the transmission risk in Surabaya and Sidoarjo. We finally provide predicted risk maps which provide additional information based on the demographic-based risk analysis to help conduct more efficient testing, tracing, and vaccination programs.
AB - Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 transmission is necessary to plan better strategies for controlling the spread of the disease. However, only a few studies explore the COVID-19 transmission risk over a fine spatial resolution while considering relevant spatial and temporal factors. To this aim, we consider an inhomogeneous marked Poisson point process model to assess COVID-19 transmission risk using data of home addresses of confirmed cases, in relation to locations of sources of crowd (enterprise, market, and place of worship) and population density in Surabaya and Sidoarjo, Indonesia. Our marked model is able to analyze how the spatial covariates are varying with time, helping authorities to evaluate the information of covariates depending on the period in which restrictions are taking place. Our results show that enterprise, place of worship, and population densities have significant impact to the transmission risk in Surabaya and Sidoarjo. We finally provide predicted risk maps which provide additional information based on the demographic-based risk analysis to help conduct more efficient testing, tracing, and vaccination programs.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Intensity
KW - Poisson point processes
KW - Risk
KW - Spatial structure
KW - Vaccines
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85147747598&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s00477-023-02393-5
DO - 10.1007/s00477-023-02393-5
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85147747598
SN - 1436-3240
VL - 37
SP - 2271
EP - 2282
JO - Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
JF - Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
IS - 6
ER -
