Demand scenario analysis and planned capacity expansion: A system dynamics framework

This paper establishes an approach to develop models for forecasting demand and evaluating policy scenarios related to planned capacity expansion for meeting optimistic and pessimistic future demand projections. A system dynamics framework is used to model and to generate scenarios because of their capability of representing physical and information flows, which will enable us to understand the nonlinear dynamics behavior in uncertain conditions. These models can provide important inputs such as construction growth, GDP growth, and investment growth to specific business decisions such as planned capacity expansion policies that will improve the system performance.