Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system

Arazi Idrus, Muhd Fadhil Nuruddin, M. Arif Rohman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

90 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Contractors traditionally estimate cost contingency based on subjective judgment, such as 5-10% from the cost estimated by considering past similar project. However, such method does not have a sound basis and is difficult to justify or defend. Therefore, more objective methods for estimating project cost contingency have been presented. However, most of the methods still rely on formal modeling techniques, which is not easy to be applied in construction industry. This research proposes a method to estimate cost contingency using a flexible and rational approach that could accommodate contractors' subjective judgment based on risk analysis and fuzzy expert system concept. In this research, the proposed method involved the development of cost contingency model for building and infrastructure projects in Malaysia. According to the validation result, it was found that the predictions given by the system were within 20% accuracy compared to actual cost contingencies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1501-1508
Number of pages8
JournalExpert Systems with Applications
Volume38
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2011
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Construction project
  • Cost contingency
  • Fuzzy expert systems
  • Risk analysis

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