It is important to study the risk posed by heavy shipping traffic to a subsea pipeline located near an industrial port area. In this context, it is essential to estimate the accident frequency in an attempt to eliminate subjectivity in the analysis process. This study proposes a model for estimating the ship sinking frequency over the subsea pipeline in the Madura Strait area. The Madura Strait is one of the busiest shipping lanes in Indonesia. Many ships pass through the fairway in the strait, and many industrial ports have been built in this area. The proposed model is developed based on Fujii's Model, and it uses Automatic Identification System (AIS) data as a ship traffic survey. Ship sinking accidents are considered based on ship-ship collisions over the critical subsea pipeline area. The ship-ship collision locations around the subsea pipeline and the ship traffic distribution models are estimated using AIS data. The causation probability Pc is determined based on a synthetics approach using a Bayesian network modified from Det Norske Veritas' and Hänninen's models. The causation probability is estimated by considering factors such as human performance, weather, technical problems, and support. The proposed model is validated by comparing its result with actual accident records for the Madura Strait area. The ratio value of 0.33 is considered to be reasonably agreement (ratio value ≥0.2).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)43-59
Number of pages17
JournalWMU Journal of Maritime Affairs
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2014


  • AIS data
  • Bayesian network
  • Madura Strait
  • Ship sinking frequency
  • Subsea pipeline


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