This paper establishes an approach to forecast air cargo demand related to terminal capacity expansion. To balance capacity and demand, it is required to forecast the future demand based on optimistic and pessimistic projections to decide when and how much, the airport should expand the capacity. System dynamics simulation model can provide reliable forecast and generate scenarios to test alternative assumptions and decisions. It was found that GDP and FDI play an important role in fostering the demand. Terminal expansion would be required in 2018 based on the optimistic projection; meanwhile, based on pessimistic projection, the capacity can meet demand in 2030, which means no need to increase the capacity.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)27-41
Number of pages15
JournalSimulation Modelling Practice and Theory
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2012


  • Air cargo
  • Demand forecast
  • Scenario analysis
  • System dynamics
  • Terminal capacity expansion


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