Dynamics simulation of air passenger forecasting and passenger terminal capacity expansion scenario in Yogyakarta Airport

Adisutjipto International Airport Yogyakarta has reached four times more than capacity allowed in 2015. The building capacity only accommodate 1,5 million passengers per year, but in 2015 there were 6 million passengers. For this reason, in 2016 the airport developing new airport, Kulon Progo Airport. Actually, since 2003, passenger terminal capacity already exceeded two times capacity allowed. To solve this problem, this research proposed new modeling-simulation-dynamic-system, that combine between GDP, population, terminal capacity and regulation from minister of transport to forecast passenger demand and time to expansion the airport. Simulation model utilized historical data in 2005-2015 to generate forecasting for 2016-2050. There were three scenarios used as consideration in determining policy, such as pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic scenario. In the pessimistic scenario models, the ideal for development is before 2031. In the most likely scenario models, the ideal time for development is before 2025. While the model of the optimistic scenario, the ideal time for development is before 2024.