Early warning of food security in East Java Indonesia using a system dynamics model

Rice is the main staple food in Indonesia that has the fourth largest population in the world. East Java is one of the largest rice producing centres in Indonesia, many other regions such as DKI, Papua, NTT, North Sumatera, South Sumatera, West Sumatera, Riau, Bengkulu, Jambi, DIY and Maluku depend on its supply of rice. The purpose of this paper is to develop system dynamic model for estimation of the East Java's rice contributions to Indonesia's food security. The objective of the model is to provide a learning tool for policy-makers to improve their understanding of the long-term dynamic behaviour of the rice production, and as a decision support tool for exploring plausible policy scenario. Management and agricultural development. Structural and behavioural pattern tests, and statistical test were used to evaluate and validate the performance of the model. The results showed that the simulated outputs agree dwell with the observed reality of the system. Three additional scenarios were simulated. (scenario 1) expanding rice field area, (scenario 2) improving the intensification and there should be additional support to farmers through provision of agricultural inputs such as seeds, fertilizers and pesticides and be given sufficient training to best apply these input and (Scenario 3) increasing the amount of infrastructure in order to distribute more supply.