Abstract
We present an SIRD epidemic modelling for COVID-19 outbreak in the ASEAN member countries. The occurrence of a second wave in the region adds complexity to the parameter estimation of the SIRD model. In this case, a standard genetic algorithm cannot fully capture the dynamic transmission of the pandemic. We therefore introduce a genetic partial fitting algorithm (GPFA) of seven-day intervals. We show that our method outperforms the standard algorithm with a significant reduction in the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value. We also extend our study to produce a real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number with a confidence interval to incorporate uncertainties in the model.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 901-914 |
Number of pages | 14 |
Journal | Journal of Applied Science and Engineering |
Volume | 24 |
Issue number | 6 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2021 |
Keywords
- Epidemic model
- Genetic algorithm
- Partial fitting
- Second wave