Forecasting of Analytic Residential Price Index Using ARIMA Box-Jenkins

Adi Prayogo Muhammad*, Wahyu Wibowo, Mike Prastuti

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Residential Price Index is one of the economic indicators that provides information on residential property development both in the current quarter and the coming quarter. The precise forecasting of residential property price index (RPI) figures in each period will be a good reference for Bank Indonesia and other parties in need in order to anticipate in case of unforeseen events affecting real conditions. In this study, RPI data modeling was conducted during 2003-2020 using ARIMA Box-Jenkins model. The results showed that the best ARIMA models were ARIMA ([4],2,1) for small houses, ARIMA (0.1,[3]) for medium houses, and ARIMA (1,1,0) for large houses. The forecast results from the best ARIMA model resulted in RPI in the fourth quarter of 2021 of 397.62 for small houses, 357.60 for medium houses, and 315.75 for large houses. This indicates that there is an increase in RPI for the period 2021 in the three categories of houses for the city of Surabaya compared to the base year 2002 and also in 2020, and there is no indication of a bubble property event that is oversupply in 2021.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication3rd International Conference on Mathematics and Sciences, ICMSc 2021
Subtitle of host publicationA Brighter Future with Tropical Innovation in the Application of Industry 4.0
EditorsRudy Agung Nugroho, Veliyana Londong Allo, Meiliyani Siringoringo, Surya Prangga, Wahidah, Rahmiati Munir, Irfan Ashari Hiyahara
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735442146
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 Oct 2022
Event3rd International Conference on Mathematics and Sciences 2021: A Brighter Future with Tropical Innovation in the Application of Industry 4.0, ICMSc 2021 - East Kalimantan, Indonesia
Duration: 12 Oct 202113 Oct 2021

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume2668
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference3rd International Conference on Mathematics and Sciences 2021: A Brighter Future with Tropical Innovation in the Application of Industry 4.0, ICMSc 2021
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CityEast Kalimantan
Period12/10/2113/10/21

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