TY - GEN
T1 - Forecasting of Analytic Residential Price Index Using ARIMA Box-Jenkins
AU - Muhammad, Adi Prayogo
AU - Wibowo, Wahyu
AU - Prastuti, Mike
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.
PY - 2022/10/11
Y1 - 2022/10/11
N2 - Residential Price Index is one of the economic indicators that provides information on residential property development both in the current quarter and the coming quarter. The precise forecasting of residential property price index (RPI) figures in each period will be a good reference for Bank Indonesia and other parties in need in order to anticipate in case of unforeseen events affecting real conditions. In this study, RPI data modeling was conducted during 2003-2020 using ARIMA Box-Jenkins model. The results showed that the best ARIMA models were ARIMA ([4],2,1) for small houses, ARIMA (0.1,[3]) for medium houses, and ARIMA (1,1,0) for large houses. The forecast results from the best ARIMA model resulted in RPI in the fourth quarter of 2021 of 397.62 for small houses, 357.60 for medium houses, and 315.75 for large houses. This indicates that there is an increase in RPI for the period 2021 in the three categories of houses for the city of Surabaya compared to the base year 2002 and also in 2020, and there is no indication of a bubble property event that is oversupply in 2021.
AB - Residential Price Index is one of the economic indicators that provides information on residential property development both in the current quarter and the coming quarter. The precise forecasting of residential property price index (RPI) figures in each period will be a good reference for Bank Indonesia and other parties in need in order to anticipate in case of unforeseen events affecting real conditions. In this study, RPI data modeling was conducted during 2003-2020 using ARIMA Box-Jenkins model. The results showed that the best ARIMA models were ARIMA ([4],2,1) for small houses, ARIMA (0.1,[3]) for medium houses, and ARIMA (1,1,0) for large houses. The forecast results from the best ARIMA model resulted in RPI in the fourth quarter of 2021 of 397.62 for small houses, 357.60 for medium houses, and 315.75 for large houses. This indicates that there is an increase in RPI for the period 2021 in the three categories of houses for the city of Surabaya compared to the base year 2002 and also in 2020, and there is no indication of a bubble property event that is oversupply in 2021.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85140221799
U2 - 10.1063/5.0116915
DO - 10.1063/5.0116915
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85140221799
T3 - AIP Conference Proceedings
BT - 3rd International Conference on Mathematics and Sciences, ICMSc 2021
A2 - Nugroho, Rudy Agung
A2 - Allo, Veliyana Londong
A2 - Siringoringo, Meiliyani
A2 - Prangga, Surya
A2 - Wahidah, null
A2 - Munir, Rahmiati
A2 - Hiyahara, Irfan Ashari
PB - American Institute of Physics Inc.
T2 - 3rd International Conference on Mathematics and Sciences 2021: A Brighter Future with Tropical Innovation in the Application of Industry 4.0, ICMSc 2021
Y2 - 12 October 2021 through 13 October 2021
ER -