Abstract

Currency plays an important role in economic transactions of Indonesian society. In order to guarantee the availability of currency, Bank Indonesia needs to develop demand and supply planning of currency. The purpose of this study is to get model and predict inflow and outflow of currency in KPW BI Region IV (East Java) with ARIMA method, time series regression and ARIMAX. The data of monthly inflow and outflow is used of currency in KPW BI Surabaya, Malang, Kediri and Jember.The observation period starting from January 2003 to December 2014. Based on the smallest values of out-sample RMSE and SMAPE, ARIMA is the best model to predict the outflow of currency in KPW BI Surabaya and ARIMAX for KPW BI Malang, Kediri and Jember. The best forecasting model for inflow of currency in KPW BI Surabaya, Malang, Kediri and Jember chronologically as follows are calendar variation model, transfer function, ARIMA, and time series regression. These results indicates that the more complex models may not necessarily produce a more accurate forecast as the result of M3-Competition.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInnovation and Analytics Conference and Exhibition, IACE 2015
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the 2nd Innovation and Analytics Conference and Exhibition
EditorsNazihah Ahmad, Jafri Zulkepli, Adyda Ibrahim, Nazrina Aziz, Syariza Abdul-Rahman
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735413382
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 Dec 2015
Event2nd Innovation and Analytics Conference and Exhibition, IACE 2015 - Alor Setar, Kedah, Malaysia
Duration: 29 Sept 20151 Oct 2015

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume1691
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference2nd Innovation and Analytics Conference and Exhibition, IACE 2015
Country/TerritoryMalaysia
CityAlor Setar, Kedah
Period29/09/151/10/15

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