Gum Rosin Price Forecasting Using A Hybrid ARIMA - LSTM Model

Muhammad Naufal Rasyad, Raras Tyasnurita

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The agricultural sector is one of Indonesia's economic strengths. It can be seen from the various kinds of agricultural commodities. As the largest agrarian country in the world, Indonesia can produce agricultural products up to 14.7% - 15% of the total gross domestic product. One of the largest agricultural products in Indonesia is gondorukem (Gum Rosin). Rosin is the sap from this pine tree. Gum rosin exports for 2012 were in response to the increasing international market demand and prices tended to rise from 1,300 USD to 1,500 USD/ton. On January 1, 2019, the price of this commodity became 1,050 USD/ton. It shows that the price of agricultural commodities is very volatile. With this condition, there is concern from both buyer and producer community. There is a difficulty in buying and selling gum rosin. To overcome this, forecasting is applied to predict the estimated price of this commodity. The forecasting model of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) are used. In terms of performance, the ARIMA in this case is better than the LSTM. While the Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM performs better than the single method if we allow more data training included.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - IEIT 2022
Subtitle of host publication2022 International Conference on Electrical and Information Technology
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages392-397
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781665453035
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Event2022 International Conference on Electrical and Information Technology, IEIT 2022 - Malang, Indonesia
Duration: 15 Sept 202216 Sept 2022

Publication series

NameProceedings - IEIT 2022: 2022 International Conference on Electrical and Information Technology

Conference

Conference2022 International Conference on Electrical and Information Technology, IEIT 2022
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CityMalang
Period15/09/2216/09/22

Keywords

  • arima
  • forecasting
  • gum rosin
  • long-short term memory

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