Hybrid multivariate generalized space-time autoregressive artificial neural network models to forecast air pollution data at Surabaya

Elly Pusporani*, Suhartono, Dedy Dwi Prastyo

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Many time series data have both time and space dimension which is known as space-time data. The objective of this research is to propose a hybrid Multivariate Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive Artificial Neural Network (MGSTAR- ANN) for handling both linear and nonlinear pattern in space-time data forecast. Air pollution data is used as a case study. The data consist of three pollutants, i.e. CO, NO2, and PM10 that were observed at three different locations, i.e. SUF 1, SUF 6, and SUF 7. RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) is used as an accuracy measurement for selecting the best model. The results show that a hybrid MGSTAR-ANN yield more accurate forecast than MGSTAR model. Moreover, these results are in line with one out of five major findings in the M4-Competition reported that the hybrid approach which utilized both statistical and Machine Learning features have more accurate result than the combination benchmark used to compare the submitted methods.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2nd International Conference on Science, Mathematics, Environment, and Education
EditorsNurma Yunita Indriyanti, Murni Ramli, Farida Nurhasanah
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735419452
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 18 Dec 2019
Event2nd International Conference on Science, Mathematics, Environment, and Education, ICoSMEE 2019 - Surakarta, Indonesia
Duration: 26 Jul 201928 Jul 2019

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume2194
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference2nd International Conference on Science, Mathematics, Environment, and Education, ICoSMEE 2019
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CitySurakarta
Period26/07/1928/07/19

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