Land use change trend of paddy field and its influence on food security in Gerbangkertosusila Region

Economic growth encourages development growth in the Gerbangkertosusila (or can be shortened as GKS) region, which is a challenge for the agricultural sector. The phenomenon of changing the function of paddy fields to developed land because of the high demand for land can threaten the food security of a region. This research will model the trend of land use change and its impact on food security in GKS region in the next 20 years using cellular automata methods and quantitative statistics. Data collection was carried out by literature studies, field observations and interviews through questionnaires to relevant stakeholders. The results of the spatial modeling analysis of the paddy field conversion trend show that there are three regions that have the highest conversion rate of paddy fields in the GKS region, namely Sidoarjo, Gresik and Surabaya City. After further analysis related to food demand projections and rice production projections is carried out, Surabaya and Sidoarjo Regency is currently experiencing a food deficit which could last even in the years ahead. Having this result, the role of several other regencies such as Lamongan and Mojokerto Regency is needed in maintaining food security in the GKS region.