Market Analysis of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in East Java Province to Enable a Sustainable Scenario Using System Dynamics Simulation

In the last 5 years, Indonesia has seen an increasing amount of infrastructure development, from toll road, airports, and power plants. This will continue for a number years. As the economic and population growth, energy needs in Indonesia are also increasing every year. Indonesia has abundant natural gas reserves at 142.71 trillion standard cubic feet (TSCF) and the largest reserves in Southeast Asia. Indonesia is also Southeast Asia's biggest gas supplier, with exports accounting for roughly 45% of its production. Natural gas is an affordable energy source and very accessible. At the current rate of consumption and assuming no new discoveries, existing reserves would last around 50 years. In this study, there are two scopes of research, first determining the supply and demand of natural gas in Java Island, and then market analysis. A market study on gas supply and demand is done on various industry, from power plants, factories, and households needs. From the market study, the condition will be analysed, whether the gas supply meet the demand or not. Then, from the current condition, an improved and sustainable model of gas distribution system will be proposed. The result of the simulation is that there will be deficit of supply every year except for 2023. The maximum daily deficit is 230.1 MMSCFD in the year 2022. Additional supply of 200 MMSCFD is required in year 2022. The viable option would be building a LNG Receiving Terminal with a capacity of 150-200 MMSCFD in Pasuruan area or to use the LNG Teluk Lamong facility.