Model selection in feedforward neural networks for forecasting inflow and outflow in Indonesia

Suhartono*, Prilyandari Dina Saputri, Farah Fajrina Amalia, Dedy Dwi Prastyo, Brodjol Sutijo Suprih Ulama

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The interest in study using neural networks models has increased as they are able to capture nonlinear pattern and have a great accuracy. This paper focuses on how to determine the best model in feedforward neural networks for forecasting inflow and outflow in Indonesia. In univariate forecasting, inputs that used in the neural networks model were the lagged observations and it can be selected based on the significant lags in PACF. Thus, there are many combinations in order to get the best inputs for neural networks model. The forecasting result of inflow shows that it is possible to testing data has more accurate results than training data. This finding shows that neural networks were able to forecast testing data as well as training data by using the appropriate inputs and neuron, especially for short term forecasting. Moreover, the forecasting result of outflow shows that testing data were lower accurate than training data.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSoft Computing in Data Science - 3rd International Conference, SCDS 2017, Proceedings
EditorsAzlinah Mohamed, Bee Wah Yap, Michael W. Berry
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages95-105
Number of pages11
ISBN (Print)9789811072413
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Event3rd International Conference on Soft Computing in Data Science, SCDS 2017 - Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Duration: 27 Nov 201728 Nov 2017

Publication series

NameCommunications in Computer and Information Science
Volume788
ISSN (Print)1865-0929

Conference

Conference3rd International Conference on Soft Computing in Data Science, SCDS 2017
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CityYogyakarta
Period27/11/1728/11/17

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Inflow
  • Neural network
  • Nonlinear
  • Outflow

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