Modeling Earthquake Catalog in Sumatra by Space–Time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences Model: Combining Davidon–Fletcher–Powell and Stochastic Declustering Algorithms

Christopher Andreas, Achmad Choiruddin*, Dedy Dwi Prastyo

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Earthquake hazard mapping has an important role as a mitigation measure for earthquake disasters. In Indonesia, especially in the Sumatra, the risk of major earthquakes is high due to its geographical location. In this study, we conduct statistical analysis of earthquake catalog data (coordinates, time occurrences, and magnitudes) and develop earthquake hazard map in the Sumatra during 2005–2023 using the Space–Time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (Space–Time ETAS) model. We perform computationally feasible method for parameter estimation combining Davidon–Fletcher–Powell and stochastic declustering algorithms. To design the study and obtain the best model, we define four different models exploring the use of complementary events. Of the four designed models, we found that model with short period of complementary events performs best. In addition, we also found that aftershock generation mechanism in the Sumatra is mainly dominated by the magnitudes of mainshocks (rather than locations or time occurrences of mainshocks). The resulting hazard map also shows the mainshocks dominate the aftershocks, which is in accordance with Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) records with respect to the earthquake-prone areas in Sumatra.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationLecture Notes on Data Engineering and Communications Technologies
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages335-351
Number of pages17
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024

Publication series

NameLecture Notes on Data Engineering and Communications Technologies
Volume191
ISSN (Print)2367-4512
ISSN (Electronic)2367-4520

Keywords

  • Complementary events
  • Disaster risk reduction
  • Earthquake hazard mapping
  • Space–Time ETAS

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