Modeling of Human Development Index in Papua Province Using Spline Smoothing Estimator in Nonparametric Regression

D. P. Rahmawati, I. N. Budiantara*, D. D. Prastyo, M. A.D. Octavanny

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review


The development goal of a country must be focused on the quality of human life to achieve prosperity. One important indicator for measuring the success of a country's development is the Human Development Index (HDI). In 2018, Papua was the province with the lowest HDI in Indonesia. Special attention is needed to improve HDI in Papua Province, one of them is by paying attention to the variables that affect HDI such as population growth rate, percentage of poor population, and economic growth. The relationships between HDI and the predictor variables do not have a clear pattern and tend to change at certain subintervals. This case can be approached using Spline Smoothing in multivariable nonparametric regression. Spline Smoothing is a type of estimator in nonparametric regression that has an excellent ability to handle data that tend to change at certain subintervals. Therefore, the purposes of this study are to obtain the form of Spline Smoothing estimator function in multivariable nonparametric regression, estimate the function and apply it to the HDI in Papua Province. The empirical results of modeling HDI in Papua Province show that it can be adequately applied which gives GCV = 58.108, R2 = 99.77% and RMSE = 0.0505.

Original languageEnglish
Article number012018
JournalJournal of Physics: Conference Series
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 15 Feb 2021
Event3rd International Conference on Statistics, Mathematics, Teaching, and Research 2019, ICSMTR 2019 - Makassar, Indonesia
Duration: 9 Oct 201910 Oct 2019


  • Human Development Index
  • Multivariable Nonparametric Regression
  • Penalized Least Square
  • Spline Smoothing


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