Modeling the effectiveness of the PSBB based on COVID-19 case in Greater Surabaya Area

East Java province with high mobility has a high case fatality rate of COVID-19. The core spread of COVID-19 is from the Greater Surabaya area following Surabaya, Sidoarjo, and Gresik districts. The East Java Government through Regulation No.18/2020 imposed a Large-Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) that is intended to support the effectiveness of the physical distancing strategy in addressing the emergency status of the COVID-19. But no official report has been found on the effectiveness of PSBB. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of PSBB, especially in Greater Surabaya. This research aims to know the model of PSBB policy to minimize the spread of COVID-19 in the greater Surabaya. The study focused on health facility (ventilator, ICU, non-ICU), population, case over a certain period, and positive case in care. This study analyzes the distribution pattern and models the effectiveness of PSBB against the spread of COVID-19 in Greater Surabaya. The data analysis used the COVID-19 Surge-CDC Model. The result of the research shows that the condition of COVID-19 cases increased significantly in the model without intervention. The sharp increase in cases is related to the anticipation of other policies related to the ability of regions to provide health facilities.