Modeling the effectiveness of the PSBB based on COVID-19 case in Greater Surabaya Area

E. B. Santoso*, V. K. Siswanto, E. Umilia, R. A.W.D. Syafitri, T. A. Desiana

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)


East Java province with high mobility has a high case fatality rate of COVID-19. The core spread of COVID-19 is from the Greater Surabaya area following Surabaya, Sidoarjo, and Gresik districts. The East Java Government through Regulation No.18/2020 imposed a Large-Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) that is intended to support the effectiveness of the physical distancing strategy in addressing the emergency status of the COVID-19. But no official report has been found on the effectiveness of PSBB. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of PSBB, especially in Greater Surabaya. This research aims to know the model of PSBB policy to minimize the spread of COVID-19 in the greater Surabaya. The study focused on health facility (ventilator, ICU, non-ICU), population, case over a certain period, and positive case in care. This study analyzes the distribution pattern and models the effectiveness of PSBB against the spread of COVID-19 in Greater Surabaya. The data analysis used the COVID-19 Surge-CDC Model. The result of the research shows that the condition of COVID-19 cases increased significantly in the model without intervention. The sharp increase in cases is related to the anticipation of other policies related to the ability of regions to provide health facilities.

Original languageEnglish
Article number012021
JournalIOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 29 May 2021
EventCITIES 2020 International Conference: Bridging the Past and the Future of Urban Landscape in the Asia Pacific - Surabaya, Virtual, Indonesia
Duration: 15 Oct 202016 Oct 2020


  • COVID-19
  • Large-Scale Social Restrictions
  • SurgeCDC Model
  • disease transmission


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