Modelling causality between agricultural and meteorological drought indices in the Corong River basin, East Java Indonesia

The Lamongan Regency is an area in East Java, Indonesia, which often experiences drought, especially in the south. The Corong River basin is located in the southern part of Lamongan, which supplies the irrigation area of the Gondang Reservoir. Drought monitoring in the Corong River basin is very important to ensure the sustainability of the agricultural regions. This study aims to analyse the causal relationship between meteorological and agricultural drought indices represented by standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standard normalisation difference vegetation index (NDVI), using time series regression. The correlation between NDVI and SPEI lag 4 has the largest correlation test results between NDVI and SPEI lag, which is 0.41. This suggests that the previous four months of meteorological drought impacted the current agricultural drought. A time series regression model strengthens the results, which show a causal relationship between NDVI and SPEI lag. According to the NDVI–SPEI-1 lag 4 time series model, NDVI was influenced by NDVI in the previous 12 periods, and SPEI-1 in the last four periods had a determinant coefficient value of 0.4. This shows that the causal model between SPEI-1 and NDVI shows a fairly strong relationship for drought management in agricultural areas (irrigated areas) and is considered a reliable and effective tool in determining the severity and duration of drought in the study area.