TY - JOUR

T1 - MODELLING THE NUMBER OF HIV CASES IN INDONESIA USING NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION BASED ON LEAST SQUARE SPLINE ESTIMATOR

AU - Ramadan, Arip

AU - Chamidah, Nur

AU - Budiantara, I. Nyoman

N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 the author(s).

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - HIV is a quite dangerous infectious disease. The HIV transmission can be controlled through several factors including the number of prisoners, early-age marriages, and contraceptive users. In order to control these factors, proper judgment must be used. To analyze the association between HIV and these factors, an appropriate statistical model approach, such as, a least square spline nonparametric negative binomial regression model, is proposed in this research. The results of the analysis show that the proposed model approach is better than the classical model approach, namely, parametric negative binomial regression model. This is supported by a deviance value of the proposed model of 15.6552 which is less than a deviance value of the parametric negative binomial regression model that is 32.2954. Also, the number of HIV cases will decrease when the number of prisoners is less than 768. In addition, the number of the HIV cases will increase only if the percentage of early-ager marriages is between 11.155% and 3.2475%, and apart from this range the number of HIV cases will decrease. Additionally, the number of HIV cases will increase if contraceptive users are between 42.085% and 48.610%, apart from this range the number of HIV cases will decrease.

AB - HIV is a quite dangerous infectious disease. The HIV transmission can be controlled through several factors including the number of prisoners, early-age marriages, and contraceptive users. In order to control these factors, proper judgment must be used. To analyze the association between HIV and these factors, an appropriate statistical model approach, such as, a least square spline nonparametric negative binomial regression model, is proposed in this research. The results of the analysis show that the proposed model approach is better than the classical model approach, namely, parametric negative binomial regression model. This is supported by a deviance value of the proposed model of 15.6552 which is less than a deviance value of the parametric negative binomial regression model that is 32.2954. Also, the number of HIV cases will decrease when the number of prisoners is less than 768. In addition, the number of the HIV cases will increase only if the percentage of early-ager marriages is between 11.155% and 3.2475%, and apart from this range the number of HIV cases will decrease. Additionally, the number of HIV cases will increase if contraceptive users are between 42.085% and 48.610%, apart from this range the number of HIV cases will decrease.

KW - HIV

KW - contraceptive users

KW - early-age marriages

KW - least square spline

KW - prisoners

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85200696684&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.28919/cmbn/8582

DO - 10.28919/cmbn/8582

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85200696684

SN - 2052-2541

VL - 2024

JO - Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience

JF - Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience

M1 - 79

ER -