Monte Carlo Simulation for Reliability Hydraulic Stability of Rubble Mound Breakwater Armour at Sudimoro Power Plant, Pacitan

In breakwater design, the conventional deterministic methods are commonly used. This method based on the concept of load, where the design load should not exceed the carrying capacity of the structure. However, the design load itself can be identified using statistics analysis, such as the average value of a 60-years return period of wave. Most of the available design formulas only provide a link between wave characteristics and some structural responses, such as run up, overtopping, or armor layer damage. In this paper, a reliability analysis of the breakwater hydraulic stability of Sudimoro Power Plant, Pacitan is performed with Monte Carlo simulation. The formulas used in hydraulic stability calculations were Hudson and Van der Meer formulas. The analysis shows that the breakwater structure in Pacitan Power Plant already meets the hydraulic stability design with reliability of 98,8% for Hudson and 95,12% for Van der Meer formula. This paper also presents the reliability of breakwater armour units proposed by authors.