Multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) methods with application to multi drug-resistant tuberculosis (mdr-tb) prevalence

Septia Devi Prihastuti Yasmirullah*, Bambang Widjaiiarko Otok, Jeny Dwi Trijoyo Purnlmo, Dedy Dwi Prastyo

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is the main public health problems 111 the world and Indonesia. The WHO report states that Indonesia is one of the countries contributing to TB in the world. If a TB patient is not successfully cured, it causes a double immunity of TB bacteria against Anti-TB Drugs (OAT), so-called multi-drug resistant (MDR). One of the Efforts to reduce the MDR-TB prevalence has been made based on information obtained from mathematical modeling, for example, using regression analysis that includes parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric approaches. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) is one of the non-parametric regression approaches. The MARS model can overcome the problem of high dimensional data, produce an accurate prediction of response variables, and can overcome the weaknesses of recursive partition regression (RPR). The MARS has been built by a stepwise algorithm, which is a combination of forward and backward technique, according to a Generalized minimum Cross-Validation (GCV) value. The minimum GCV value 0.000015 is obtained from the best model that has a combination of Basis Function (BF) = 28, Minimum Interaction (MI) = 3, and Minimum Observation (MO) = 2. The result shows that all of the basis functions in the model have a significant effect on the response. The highest contribution of the basis function coefficient has given by BF6, which means the coefficient of BF6 will be statistically significant when the ratio of primary health facilities is more than 28.44. If the ratio of primary health facilities is more than 28.44, then the increase of one unit (other variables is considered constant) the MDR-TB prevalence increase by 0.171.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInternational Conference on Mathematics, Computational Sciences and Statistics 2020
EditorsCicik Alfiniyah, Fatmawati, Windarto
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735440739
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 26 Feb 2021
Externally publishedYes
EventInternational Conference on Mathematics, Computational Sciences and Statistics 2020, ICoMCoS 2020 - Surabaya, Indonesia
Duration: 29 Sept 2020 → …

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume2329
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

ConferenceInternational Conference on Mathematics, Computational Sciences and Statistics 2020, ICoMCoS 2020
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CitySurabaya
Period29/09/20 → …

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