Abstract

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the economic indicators used to measure inflation. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) publishes a monthly CPI and inflation with a time lag of one working day. Policies based on the monthly inflation rate could be losing momentum as the events associated with inflation had occurred long before inflation or CPI was published. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate daily CPI to describe near real-time price changes. Nowcasting can overcome this issue by predicting daily inflation through predicting daily CPI. The calculation of daily CPI is done by entering daily data price of basic commodities in Sistem Informasi Ketersediaan dan Perkembangan Harga Bahan Pokok (SISKAPERBAPO), daily Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) from Bank Indonesia, and daily Brent crude oil futures prices from Id Investing into a nowcasting model and validated by monthly CPI published by BPS. The nowcasting method used in this study is the Time Series Regression (TSR) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) applied to predict daily CPI nowcasts in East Java Province. The performance comparison between TSR and SVR is evaluated based on the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE), and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). SVR-Polynomial is the best method for predicting daily CPI.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication3rd International Conference on Science, Mathematics, Environment, and Education
Subtitle of host publicationFlexibility in Research and Innovation on Science, Mathematics, Environment, and Education for Sustainable Development
EditorsNurma Yunita Indriyanti, Meida Wulan Sari
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735443099
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 27 Jan 2023
Event3rd International Conference on Science, Mathematics, Environment, and Education: Flexibility in Research and Innovation on Science, Mathematics, Environment, and Education for Sustainable Development, ICoSMEE 2021 - Surakarta, Indonesia
Duration: 27 Jul 202128 Jul 2021

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume2540
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference3rd International Conference on Science, Mathematics, Environment, and Education: Flexibility in Research and Innovation on Science, Mathematics, Environment, and Education for Sustainable Development, ICoSMEE 2021
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CitySurakarta
Period27/07/2128/07/21

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