Peak load forecasting on national holiday using fuzzy-firefly algorithm at jawa-bali electricity system in Indonesia

This paper discusses the short-term load forecasting of peak load on national holiday. The peak load is forecasted using Fuzzy Inference System Type 2, in which is combined with the firefly algorithm. Firefly algorithm is used to optimize the footprint of uncertainty (FOU) on fuzzy logic that consists of antecedent (X, Y) and consequent (Z). This method is applied for short-term load forecasting by utilizing data from the daily peak loads during a holiday in the electrical system of Jawa-Bali, Indonesia. Then focused on peak load data from four days before the holiday (h-4) and on holidays (h). The tests showed that the method of Fuzzy Inference System Type-2 Firefly provide accurate forecasting, showing by its significant lower absolute error. The peak load national holidays forecasting error using Interval Fuzzy Logic Type 2-firefly amounted to 0.453167666%, using IT1FL of 1.272449841%, using IT2FL of 1.265763% and using IT2FL-BBBC of 0.974277222%.