Abstract

The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) forecasting method has been used widely recently. SSA has characteristics and advantages in decomposing data into trends, oscillations, and noise, which are for forecasting. Forecasting withSSA can be done by several ways e.g. Linear Recurrent Formula (LRF), Vector, and Simultaneous. The Bootstrapping process is implemented in those forecasting methods to increase the accuracy and builds the interval forecast. This study focuses on testing the sensitivity and accuracy of the combination of the Bootstrap-LRF and Bootstrap-Vector methods. The tests are applied to data that contains structural breaks, namely Indonesia's trade monthly data (exports and imports) from 1993 to 2019. The test results show that Bootstrap-Vector has a smaller forecasting range and is more accurate than Bootstrap-LRF in long-horizon forecast. Moreover, the Bootstrap-Vector is more stable in the presence of structural break in the data, meaning that this method is less sensitive to structural changes. Meanwhile, Bootstrap-LRF is more accurate in short horizon forecast.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication8th International Conference on Research Implementation and Education of Mathematics and Science, ICRIEMS 2021
Subtitle of host publicationTransforming Science Literacy into A New Normal Digital World to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals
EditorsNur Aeni Ariyanti, Kartika Ratna Pertiwi, Heru Sukoco, Fika Fauzi, Paramita Cahyaningrum Kuswandi
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735443143
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 17 Mar 2023
Event8th International Conference on Research Implementation and Education of Mathematics and Science: Transforming Science Literacy into A New Normal Digital World to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals, ICRIEMS 2021 - Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Duration: 27 Aug 202128 Aug 2021

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume2556
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference8th International Conference on Research Implementation and Education of Mathematics and Science: Transforming Science Literacy into A New Normal Digital World to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals, ICRIEMS 2021
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CityYogyakarta
Period27/08/2128/08/21

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