Probabilistic prediction of time performance in building construction project using Bayesian Belief Networks-Markov Chain

Time performance is one of the main success criteria of construction project. There are many uncertainty factors that affecting the time performance of building construction projects. However, time performance measurement on the previous research didn't calculate probability the correlation of uncertainty factors. This study aims to predict the probability of project time performance using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)-Markov Chain (MC) hybrid. MC is used to represent the dynamic progress of the project and connected the uncertainty factors by BBN. Data is collected by literature study, location survey, questionnaire and interview with expert. Model validation is investigated by applying in a case study of construction projects, building P, Q and R in the city of Surabaya. The results showed that the time performance prediction of the building construction project using the BBN- Markov Chain hybrid was accurately. It can be used measurement method of time performance and provide early warning of time delay in construction project.