Probability of private vehicle users switching to commuter train

The Trans Sulawesi train for the Makassar-Parepare route has planned to start operating in October 2022. The existence of the Makassar Pare-Pare Railroad is part of implementing and promoting sustainable transportation. A probability analysis study of the Trans Sulawesi train for the Makassar-Parepare route aims to determine the probability of switching users of motorcycles, private cars, and passenger cars to use the Trans Sulawesi train. The probability value will be analyzed using binary logistic regression analysis. The results show that the probability of switching modes based on the respondent's desire to change is influenced by their previous travel time and the cost that they have paid. The higher the time and cost that they have paid, the higher the probability they are willing to switch. The probability value is based on the desire to switch on the offer of economy class conditions (speed 100 km/hour, travel time 160 minutes, and fare Rp. 100,000) influenced by the previous travel time by private vehicle, which is 240 minutes with a probability value 60.30% and based on the desire to switch on the condition of the executive class (speed 100 km/hour, travel time 120 minutes and fare Rp. 160,000) the probability of switching modes influenced by the previous travel time by private vehicle, which is 240 minutes with a probability value 83.49%.