Transport Modelling is important. For certain cases, the conventional model still has to be used, in which having a good trip production model is capital. A good model can only be obtained from a good sample. Two of the basic principles of a good sampling is having a sample capable to represent the population characteristics and capable to produce an acceptable error at a certain confidence level. It seems that this principle is not yet quite understood and used in trip production modeling. Therefore, investigating the Trip Production Modelling practice in Indonesia and try to formulate a better modeling method for ensuring the Model Quality is necessary. This research result is presented as follows. Statistics knows a method to calculate span of prediction value at a certain confidence level for linear regression, which is called Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. The common modeling practice uses R2 as the principal quality measure, the sampling practice varies and not always conform to the sampling principles. An experiment indicates that small sample is already capable to give excellent R2 value and sample composition can significantly change the model. Hence, good R2 value, in fact, does not always mean good model quality. These lead to three basic ideas for ensuring good model quality, i.e. reformulating quality measure, calculation procedure, and sampling method. A quality measure is defined as having a good R2 value and a good Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. Calculation procedure must incorporate statistical calculation method and appropriate statistical tests needed. A good sampling method must incorporate random well distributed stratified sampling with a certain minimum number of samples. These three ideas need to be more developed and tested.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Construction and Building Engineering, ICONBUILD 2017
Subtitle of host publicationSmart Construction Towards Global Challenges
EditorsWilliam Reza Borgan, Saloma, Victor, Flandy Buntoro
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735415911
Publication statusPublished - 14 Nov 2017
Event3rd International Conference on Construction and Building Engineering: Smart Construction Towards Global Challenges, ICONBUILD 2017 - Palembang, Indonesia
Duration: 14 Aug 201717 Aug 2017

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616


Conference3rd International Conference on Construction and Building Engineering: Smart Construction Towards Global Challenges, ICONBUILD 2017


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