Rolling forecast as an alternative tool for short term production planning: A case study of bicycle manufacturer

Desi Winoto, I. Gede Agus Widyadana*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

The accuracy of production planning is crucial that must be achieved by manufacturing companies. Production planning is sensitive to sales patterns and the availability of raw materials. Production planning must be in line with raw material planning. To ensure that the raw materials are available, production planning has to be deed in advance. In the waiting period for these raw materials, sales patterns may change so that the forecast and actual value deviations differ significantly. A dynamic mechanism of calculating the value of safety stock is carried out and carrying out the correction function of forecasting value by rolling forecast for overcoming it. Rolling forecasts allow forecasts of updated forecasting due to changes in sales patterns detected from actual sales value renewal. Using a rolling forecast as an alternative tool in forecast correction can reduce excess inventory by up to fifty-seven percent.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAIP Conference Proceedings
EditorsDidik Wahjudi, Hariyo P.S. Pratomo, Oegik Soegihardjo, Teng Sutrisno, Siana Halim, I. Nyoman Sutapa, Iwan Halim Sahputra
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
Edition1
ISBN (Electronic)9780735442023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 18 Jan 2024
Externally publishedYes
Event2nd International Conference on Automotive, Manufacturing, and Mechanical Engineering, IC-AMME 2021 - Virtual, Online, Indonesia
Duration: 2 Oct 2021 → …

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Number1
Volume2951
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference2nd International Conference on Automotive, Manufacturing, and Mechanical Engineering, IC-AMME 2021
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CityVirtual, Online
Period2/10/21 → …

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