Standardized residual as response function for order identification of multi input intervention analysis

Suhartono*, Muhammad Hisyam Lee, Sri Rezeki

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Intervention analysis is a statistical model in the group of time series analysis which is widely used to describe the effect of an intervention caused by external or internal factors. An example of external factors that often occurs in Indonesia is a disaster, both natural or man-made disaster. The main purpose of this paper is to provide the results of theoretical studies on identification step for determining the order of multi inputs intervention analysis for evaluating the magnitude and duration of the impact of interventions on time series data. The theoretical result showed that the standardized residuals could be used properly as response function for determining the order of multi inputs intervention model. Then, these results are applied for evaluating the impact of a disaster on a real case in Indonesia, i.e. the magnitude and duration of the impact of the Lapindo mud on the volume of vehicles on the highway. Moreover, the empirical results showed that the multi inputs intervention model can describe and explain accurately the magnitude and duration of the impact of disasters on a time series data.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication3rd ISM International Statistical Conference 2016, ISM 2016
Subtitle of host publicationBringing Professionalism and Prestige in Statistics
EditorsShaiful Anuar Abu Bakar, Ibrahim Mohamed, Rossita Mohamad Yunus
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735415126
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 12 May 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event3rd ISM International Statistical Conference 2016: Bringing Professionalism and Prestige in Statistics, ISM 2016 - Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Duration: 9 Aug 201611 Aug 2016

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume1842
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference3rd ISM International Statistical Conference 2016: Bringing Professionalism and Prestige in Statistics, ISM 2016
Country/TerritoryMalaysia
CityKuala Lumpur
Period9/08/1611/08/16

Keywords

  • identification step
  • intervention analysis
  • multi inputs
  • response function
  • standardized residuals

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