System dynamics simulation model for urban transportation planning: A case study

This paper aims to develop an urban transportation planning through the use of system dynamics simulation model. This planning includes congestion mitigation through demand and capacity management, the improvement of public transport sector, and the urban mobility improvement. System dynamics simulation model was used to test and evaluate some alternative policies for urban transportation planning. Simulation results show that mobility depends on travel time, the fulfilment ratio of public transport supply and demand, the effectiveness of public transport transfer distance and transfer time, as well as the access time. Traffic congestion is influenced by the internal factor and external events. This study was conducted at Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia, which is the fourth most congested city in the world. The original scientific contributions of this research include model formulation and development of the daily traffic, urban mobility, and congestion; predictive analysis of the future daily traffic; scenarios development to increase mobility and reduce congestion by considering the internal and external factors.