The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation: A system thinking approach (case study: East Java)

The area of Indonesian rice fields in 2016 reached 8.19 million hectares (ha), an increase of 1.16% from the previous year, this number comprising 4.78 million ha of irrigated rice fields and 3.4 million ha of non-irrigated rice fields. In 2017, especially in East Java, the harvest area is 2,278,460 hectares, and rice production is 13,633,701 tons. On the other hand, increasing agricultural activities can also contribute to emissions that can trigger climate change through the greenhouse gases (GHG) produced. GHG is a gas contained in the atmosphere, which absorbs and re-emits infrared radiation. Side effects of greenhouse gas accumulation can cause extreme climate change that affects land productivity. This study aims to analyze rice field productivity and build a greenhouse gas emission model that produce from the rice field productivity system. Emissions to be discussed in this study are CO2, CH4, and N2O. The approach is carried out with a system dynamics because it has the characteristics of a complex, nonlinear system dynamics, changes in system behavior over time and feedback that describes new information about the state of the rice productivity system, which will then produce further decisions. The results of this study are causal loop diagram of CH4, CO2 and N2O emissions resulting from the productivity of rice fields modeled using system dynamics. This model contains GHG information generated from the agricultural sector and its impact. This model can be used as a consideration for the government and stakeholders as a reference for making policies for GHG emission mitigation technology as part of smart agriculture.