The development of system dynamics model to analyze and improve the production of crude palm oil derivatives

Indonesia is one of the largest palm oil producer in world. The products of palm oil derivative diverse, ranging from cooking oil, margarine, soap, and biodiesel. So far, Indonesia is more likely to export Crude Palm Oil (CPO) to various countries. But on the other hand, Indonesia need to reduce the burden imports of some palm oil derivative products such as cooking oil, biodiesel, and soap. It is therefore, we need a breakthrough to improve the production of crude palm oil and its derivative products so that we can increase the availability of the derivative products. Based on this existing condition, we need an approach that can analyze the use condition of the palm oil derivative products and improve the palm oil use of derivative products in the future. Therefore, in this research, we will develop a model that can analyze and develop some policy scenarios to improve the utilization of palm oil derivative products. The method used for the model development is system dynamics, based on the ability to accommodate the internal and external factors that affect the production of palm oil derivative products.From the model scenarios we obtained that by sorting the fruits harvested, so that the levels of Oil Extraction Rate is at 22.1%, it can increase the stock of CPO by 11%. By utilizing 50% of CPO for the cooking oil production will meet the needs of the national cooking oil demand, with a ratio of 1.5 fulfillment began in 2010. If we utilize 35% of CPO to be processed as stearin, and use 10% of stearin in the soap contain, it will fulfill the need of domestic soap until 2015. By utilizing the empty fruit bunches waste as raw material for biodiesel, there will be additional biodiesel production of around 920,479 kilolitres in 2019. Meanwhile, the use of 1% of CPO production to create biodiesel, it will make biodiesel production reaches 31,173 kilolitres in 2019. From these efforts, there will be 951,652 kilolitres biodiesel production in 2019.