The implementation of tourism demand forecasting using seasonal arima for the investment analysis of floating aquaculture

In order to improve the prosperity of coastal communities, the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries has apropos strategy by building and revitalizing the aquaculture floating structures as the facilities for fish farming. This research is focusing on floating aquaculture in the region of Kenjeran Beach, Surabaya. Then, before building the facility of floating aquaculture, the proper analysis of investment should be studied. The methods used in the analysis of investment are BEP and NPV, the values of which are obtained from the variable cost of production and revenue. Cost of production, includes the building and maintenance cost (gasoline and service, seed & feed cost, labor cost and transportation cost. The revenue obtained from the fish cultivation, which can be sold also the floating aquaculture tourism arrival. The amount of fish is assumed as a fixed parameter depending on the dimensions of the cultivated area. The arrival tourism will be fluctuating every year, which is known by using SARIMA method. This final research is getting the value of BEP in the fourth years, which is every cost will be paid off in the fourth years.