TY - GEN
T1 - The Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic Situation in Indonesia Using SVR and SIR Algorithm
AU - Yaqin, Ainul
AU - Rahardi, Majid
AU - Abdulloh, Ferian Fauzi
AU - Kusnawi,
AU - Budiprayitno, Slamet
AU - Fatonah, Siti
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 IEEE.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - The COVID-19 epidemic, which initially surfaced at the end of 2019, has since expanded to every corner of the globe and has profoundly impacted all facets of human existence. This case started to emerge in Indonesia at the end of February 2020, and until this point, there has been a spike in new patients. Researchers have run several models and projections for COVID-19 cases in Indonesia, but the results are not yet entirely reliable. Predictions produced at the national level must take into account these variations in patterns because this is likely related to the distinct patterns in each region. In this study, the prediction process will be conducted for cases of COVID-19 by using the SVR algorithm and mathematical models to predict reproduction numbers. SVR analysis to overcome the problem of nonlinearity of data in model formation. The modeling is done based on the SIR model, whose parameters are estimated based on the data. Testing result by using 3 kernels is different on each test, prediction of data cases and the level of mistake room are by using Kernel ' RBF ' with a value of C = 1E3, and gamma = 0.1 with the value of MAPE and MSE respectively are 4.5% and 4.2.
AB - The COVID-19 epidemic, which initially surfaced at the end of 2019, has since expanded to every corner of the globe and has profoundly impacted all facets of human existence. This case started to emerge in Indonesia at the end of February 2020, and until this point, there has been a spike in new patients. Researchers have run several models and projections for COVID-19 cases in Indonesia, but the results are not yet entirely reliable. Predictions produced at the national level must take into account these variations in patterns because this is likely related to the distinct patterns in each region. In this study, the prediction process will be conducted for cases of COVID-19 by using the SVR algorithm and mathematical models to predict reproduction numbers. SVR analysis to overcome the problem of nonlinearity of data in model formation. The modeling is done based on the SIR model, whose parameters are estimated based on the data. Testing result by using 3 kernels is different on each test, prediction of data cases and the level of mistake room are by using Kernel ' RBF ' with a value of C = 1E3, and gamma = 0.1 with the value of MAPE and MSE respectively are 4.5% and 4.2.
KW - Prediction reproduction number
KW - SIR Model
KW - SVR
KW - covid-19 Pandemic
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85150435320&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/ICITISEE57756.2022.10057813
DO - 10.1109/ICITISEE57756.2022.10057813
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85150435320
T3 - Proceeding - 6th International Conference on Information Technology, Information Systems and Electrical Engineering: Applying Data Sciences and Artificial Intelligence Technologies for Environmental Sustainability, ICITISEE 2022
SP - 570
EP - 573
BT - Proceeding - 6th International Conference on Information Technology, Information Systems and Electrical Engineering
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 6th International Conference on Information Technology, Information Systems and Electrical Engineering, ICITISEE 2022
Y2 - 13 December 2022 through 14 December 2022
ER -