Two-level seasonal model based on hybrid ARIMA-ANFIS for forecasting short-term electricity load in Indonesia

Suhartono*, Indah Puspitasari, M. Sjahid Akbar, Muhammad Hisyam Lee

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The aim of this research is to develop a forecasting model for half-hourly electricity load in Java-Bali Indonesia by using two-level seasonal model based on hybrid ARIMA-ANFIS. This two-level forecasting model is developed based on the ARIMA model at the first level and ANFIS for the second level. The forecast accuracy is compared to the results of the individual approach of ARIMA and ANFIS. Data about half-hourly electricity load for Java-Bali on 1st January 2009 to 31st December 2010 period are used as case study. The results show that two-level seasonal hybrid ARIMA-ANFIS model with Gaussian membership function yields more accurate forecast values than individual approach of ARIMA and ANFIS model for predicting half-hourly electricity load, particularly up to 2 days ahead. This hybrid ARIMA-ANFIS model yields MAPE 1.78% for forecasting 7 days ahead and it is less than 2% as a benchmark value from Indonesian Electricity Company.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationICSSBE 2012 - Proceedings, 2012 International Conference on Statistics in Science, Business and Engineering
Subtitle of host publication"Empowering Decision Making with Statistical Sciences"
Pages634-638
Number of pages5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Event2012 International Conference on Statistics in Science, Business and Engineering, ICSSBE 2012 - Langkawi, Kedah, Malaysia
Duration: 10 Sept 201212 Sept 2012

Publication series

NameICSSBE 2012 - Proceedings, 2012 International Conference on Statistics in Science, Business and Engineering: "Empowering Decision Making with Statistical Sciences"

Conference

Conference2012 International Conference on Statistics in Science, Business and Engineering, ICSSBE 2012
Country/TerritoryMalaysia
CityLangkawi, Kedah
Period10/09/1212/09/12

Keywords

  • ANFIS
  • ARIMA
  • electricity load
  • hybrid
  • two level

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