Abstract

Appropriate decision making in risk management of rice production is very important in agricultural planning, especially for Indonesia which is an agricultural country. Good decision would be obtained if the supporting data required are satisfied and using appropriate methods. This study aims to develop a Decision Support System that can be used to predict the risk level of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java. Web-based decision support system is constructed so that the information can be easily accessed and understood. Components of the system are data management, model management, and user interface. This research uses regression models of OLS and Copula. OLS model used to predict rainfall while Copula model used to predict harvested area. Experimental results show that the models used are successfully predict the harvested area of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java at any given time based on the conditions and climate of a region. Furthermore, it can predict the amount of rice production with the level of risk. System generates prediction of production risk level in the long term for some districts that can be used as a decision support for the authorities.

Original languageEnglish
Article number012143
JournalJournal of Physics: Conference Series
Volume890
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 21 Sept 2017
Event1st International Conference on Applied and Industrial Mathematics and Statistics 2017, ICoAIMS 2017 - Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia
Duration: 8 Aug 201710 Aug 2017

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